Grade 4

Read the Headline Story to the students. Encourage them to think in terms of likelihood. Actual experimentation with multiple draws (replacing the candy each time before trying again) should accompany class discussion to show that anything can happen on any one trial, but that the more trials, the “more likely” the predicted outcome will occur. This will assure that students are not merely asserting the probabilities and thinking that they dictate results of one-time events.

Jenise bought a package of assorted candies. of the candies were strawberry flavored, were lemon, and the rest were orange. Jenise took a candy from the bag without looking. What can you say about the candy she took?

- of the candies must have been orange, so the candy she took was more likely to have been orange than lemon.
- Strawberry was the least likely flavor, so there was a better chance that she got lemon than that she got strawberry.
- She had the same chance of getting orange as getting either lemon or strawberry.

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